Why I think the next xbox is at least 2 years away.

So I was just sitting around thinking.  It's something I think i do way to much of to be honest, but anyway what brought me to this conclusion was another recent announcement about the current xbox.  Remember the new deal where you could get an xbox 360 and a kinect for just $99 plus a two year agreement to pay $14.99 a month.  Well there is where I get this from.  Why would Microsoft put it's new customers in an agreement when their next big console they will want everyone to buy is just around the corner?  Yeah I don't think that makes sense for them.  I believe that in a way this was a sign for us as to how far away the next console is.  Yes we are hearing rumors of game studios being asked to prepare for this next console but just like any game for any other system it would take a few years to develop.  So it would make perfect sense that they are signing developers up early to prepare so that they will have games ready for launch.  I mean what good is a game console with out games right?  Anyway that is my thought on the matter.  You may talk amongst yourselves now...